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【观点】南华期货:黄大豆一号多空博弈焦灼,关注减产预期_我的网站

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A |     【期货盘面】昨日黄大豆一号主力合约先跌后涨,整体波动较大,尾盘收于4987元/吨,下跌62元/吨。【现货基差】今日国内大豆现货均价较前一工作日回落。    

This photo shows the illuminated Lujiazui in celebration of the New Year in east China's Shanghai, Dec. 31, 2025. (Xinhua/Wang Xiang)
    This photo shows the illuminated Lujiazui in celebration of the New Year in east China's Shanghai, Dec. 31, 2025. (Xinhua/Wang Xiang)The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, has issued a reform and development plan for the 2026-2030 period, making work arrangements aimed at accelerating the building of a nation with a strong financial sector and improving the central banking system.
The plan said measures will be taken to "prudently advance high-level financial opening-up," noting efforts will be made to expand the global use of the renminbi in international trade, investment and financing, deepen two-way financial market access, quicken steps to build Shanghai into an international financial center and enhance the role of Hong Kong as a global financial center.
As part of the opening-up drive, the PBOC will enhance the multi-tiered and broad-coverage Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and push forward the development of offshore renminbi markets.
On the domestic monetary policy front, the plan sets out to build a more scientific and robust framework by refining the modern monetary policy system with Chinese characteristics, improving the base-money issuance mechanism, and making better use of both aggregate and structural tools.
It stresses the need to enhance market-based interest rate formation, transmission, and adjustment mechanisms, while allowing the market to play a decisive role in exchange-rate determination and keeping the renminbi broadly stable at a reasonable and equilibrium level.
To fortify financial stability, the central bank will expand the coverage of macro-prudential management, enrich its policy toolkit, and establish a monitoring and evaluation system to mitigate systemic risks in key areas.
A major pillar of the plan is to strengthen the real economy's access to quality financial services. The PBOC has pledged to build a precise and effective policy system to support major strategies, key sectors, and address weak links. This includes developing a financial system tailored to scientific and technological innovation. It also aims to enhance green and low-carbon financing, expand inclusive finance, improve the pension finance system and accelerate digital finance.
Looking ahead to the 2026-2030 period, the PBOC says it will ensure all measures in the plan are executed effectively to boost China's strength in finance and support high-quality economic development.
。黑龙江现货价格跟随期货价格小幅上调,但下游走货依然不旺。东北主产区主流价格在4680-4860元/吨区间,西部地区下跌40元/吨;皖北报价在4900-5100元/吨区间;苏北价格为5000-5200元/吨;广东价格在4960-4980元/吨,上涨80元/吨。

B | 【供需库存】从供应端来看,近...。

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